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#26
4th February 2018, 14:46
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 79.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 79.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 21.5S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 23.0S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 24.4S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 25.6S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 27.4S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 28.1S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 79.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 899 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTERN SIDE. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 040200Z INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. HOWEVER, A 040054Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY INTACT, WITH A WELL- DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 040332Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KNOTS, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER BY A 040055Z AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS AND THE 040332Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF GREATER THAN 60 KNOT WINDS. THE VWS ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION. THERE IS A SHARP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVOR A SLOW DISSIPATION, WHILE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LESS AGGRESSIVE, CALLING FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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#27
4th February 2018, 21:43
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 20.9S 80.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 80.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 22.1S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.6S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 24.9S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.1S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 27.3S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 27.8S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 80.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 941 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTERN SIDE. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 041000Z INDICATES THAT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE HAS OCCURRED. A 041109Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE, SO THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INTENSITY HAS STEADILY WEAKENED AND IS DOWN TO 60 KNOTS, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS) INFLUENCED BY A 041031Z AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS. THE VWS ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE EXTENSION OF THIS STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07S, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS A SHARP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVOR ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING BY TAU 72, WHILE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, CALLING FOR DISSIPATION SOME TIME AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED STORM STATE AS DISSIPATING AND DISSIPATED AT TAU 72 AND 96, RESPECTIVELY. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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#28
5th February 2018, 08:32
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WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 037 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 81.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 81.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.7S 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 24.9S 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.0S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 26.8S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 27.5S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 81.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1047 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED ACCORDING TO THE BROAD LLCC IN THE SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 042224Z AND 050041Z. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 07S, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS HIGH (OVER 30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z, AND 060300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#29
5th February 2018, 11:23
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 81.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 81.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 24.2S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 25.4S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 26.3S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 26.8S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 26.9S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 81.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1083 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY SHEARED SYSTEM WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 30 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 050200Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS WARM CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 07S, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (30 TO 45 KNOTS). THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 050312Z METOP- B ASCAT PASS SHOWING SEVERAL 50 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VWS REMAINS HIGH (OVER 30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN THAT OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW BEING STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTH BY AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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#30
5th February 2018, 17:21
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 81.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 81.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.0S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.0S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 26.6S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 26.8S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 27.0S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 81.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1136 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STARTING TO TUCK UNDER BANDING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 30 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST GFS AND NAVGEM BASED CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS WARM CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051055Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH ERODED STRUCTURE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS MOSTLY INTACT, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN UNDERSHOOTING INTENSITY AND RANGE FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS), WHILE A 051018Z CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS 59 KNOTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VWS REMAINS HIGH (OVER 30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN THAT OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW BEING STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTH BY AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN DUE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THERE IS STILL GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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#31
5th February 2018, 23:17
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 24.5S 81.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 81.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 25.8S 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 26.6S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 27.1S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 27.2S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 27.6S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED ACCORDING TO ANIMATED EIR AND A 051621Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A 051622Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS, DESPITE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 40 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TC 07S, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW THE NECESSARY CRITERION OF 26 DEGREES C TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN TROPICAL CYCLONES. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 72. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH WHILE BEING STEERED BY A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TURN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#32
6th February 2018, 08:40
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 81.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 81.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.3S 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 26.9S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 27.3S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 27.4S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 81.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN A RATHER STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST DAY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 052226Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL- DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EQUATORWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SINCE THE 051543Z OSCAT PASS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. TC 07S CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS IT IS STEERED AROUND AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE, DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON THIS TURN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TOWARD THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 12 TO 24. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS), WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES C), SUGGESTING THAT THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION BY AROUND TAU 48. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#33
6th February 2018, 14:25
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 25.6S 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 26.4S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 26.7S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 26.7S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1231 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW AND A 06334Z MMHS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND EARLIER OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 07S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS THROUGH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLY LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT SHALLOWER BANDING IS STILL TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH TC 07S HAS DEVELOPED SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, SATELLITE SOUNDING DATA AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A WARM-CORE, TROPICAL STRUCTURE FOR THE TIME BEING. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS OCCURRING BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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#34
6th February 2018, 18:50
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 26.2S 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 26.7S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 26.8S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.7S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEGREE OF WRAP AROUND A WELL-DEFINED AND PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 061151Z 37 GHZ GPM PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED CHARACTERISTIC OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH TC 07S IS TRACKING IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VWS AND COOL SSTS (26 C), A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE NER TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE NER IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE AND THE STR BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 07S WESTWARD. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, TC CEBILE IS TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, LENDING AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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#35
6th February 2018, 22:48
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 82.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 82.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 27.1S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 27.2S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 27.1S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 27.5S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 81.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVERTHE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS TAKING ON SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH A 061656Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 061658Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND IS ABOVE MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK AND SUB-TROPICAL CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE INTENSITY IS SET 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE SYSTEMS ASYMMETRICAL AND WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CAUSING UNDER ESTIMATES USING SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE AREA OF STRONG (>30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALLOWING IT TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 07S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE NER WILL RECEDE AND A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE BUILDING STR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE WEST BY TAU 24 AND TRACK DUE WEST UNTIL AFTER TAU 36 WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, TC CEBILE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND AN ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD TURN IN THE TRACK WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SUGGESTED THE WESTERN TURN FOR THE PREVIOUS FOUR FORECAST CYCLES HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO A DELAY IN THE BUILDING STR. THE DELAY IN THE WESTWARD TURN LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#36
7th February 2018, 08:26
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 81.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 81.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 27.1S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.8S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 26.8S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 27.4S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 81.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1275 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 062159Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 061658Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK AND SUB-TROPICAL CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DISSIPATION, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE 50 KNOT INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (>30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY TC 07S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE NER WILL BE REPLACED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE BY A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. TC CEBILE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ALONG TRACK SSTS DROP AND VWS INCREASES, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND AN ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#37
7th February 2018, 18:29
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 26.7S 80.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 80.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.3S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 26.3S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 80.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1384 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEFINED, ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LLC EVEN AS ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTINUED TO ELONGATE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 071028Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE INTACT NATURE OF THE LLC. TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND EVEN STRONGER (30-KNOT PLUS) VWS LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS UNDERGOING TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. SOME MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24 AS THE CYCLONE RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#38
7th February 2018, 22:38
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 80.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 80.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 26.3S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 26.7S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 28.1S 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 79.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1248 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH AN ELONGATED MASS OF CONVECTION PRESSED TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS ANIMATED EIR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY A 071542Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS A 071635Z CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 42 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST 72 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VWS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AGAINST STRONG (30-KNOT PLUS) WESTERLY VWS LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. CURRENT SSTS ARE BELOW 25C AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY (LESS THAN 1C) AS 07S TRACKS WEST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS STARTING TO EXHIBIT SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AS EVIDENCED BY ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#39
8th February 2018, 09:00
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 79.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 79.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 26.2S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 27.0S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 78.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1219 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED BUT FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH A MASS OF DISSIPATING CONVECTION SHEARED HEAVILY TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 072146Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT A LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY BROADENED AND ERODED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS ANIMATED EIR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN CONVECTIVE AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, SUPPORTED BY A 071932Z CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 42 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST 72 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING OVER 30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VWS AND IS TRACKING DIRECTLY INTO THE SHEAR, STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT SSTS ARE BELOW 25C AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY (LESS THAN 1C) AS 07S CONTINUES WEST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS EXHIBITING SOME SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AS EVIDENCED BY ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#40
8th February 2018, 18:40
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Final Warning
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 051
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 26.2S 77.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 77.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 26.8S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 76.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1177 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED AND DECAYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 081141Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH NO CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A 080348Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTINUING DECAY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND THAT OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE DISSIPATED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINAL, BETWEEN 25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. TC 07S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS IT DROPS TO AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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