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#1
7th October 2018, 22:26
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Michael - Atlantic Ocean
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#2
8th October 2018, 07:49
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. A hurricane watch will likely be required for a portion of this area today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba today, cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today through Tuesday night, and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning to spread across portions of the Cuban coast within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are also very close to the coast of Mexico within the warning area. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#3
8th October 2018, 14:30
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday night... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#4
8th October 2018, 19:00
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Crystal River FL...8-12 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Navarre FL to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life- threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#5
9th October 2018, 07:49
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...MICHAEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 85.7W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located by and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 85.7 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#6
9th October 2018, 19:43
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 86.4W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#7
10th October 2018, 07:55
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm conditions expected during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area this morning, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast later today, and possible in the watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase today into over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#8
10th October 2018, 14:33
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading onshore later this morning within the hurricane warning area. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight, and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#9
10th October 2018, 21:35
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Corrected pressure in inches in summary block and text ...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Alabama/Florida border. The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of Chassahowitzka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight. Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to 129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.14 inches). A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and tonight. With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye passes! Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#10
11th October 2018, 07:50
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 83.2W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 83.2 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue this morning. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across central and eastern Georgia this morning, and then over southern and central South Carolina later today. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, but it is forecast to re-strengthen some when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). During the last few hours, Eastman, Georgia reported a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h), McRae, Georgia reported a wind gust of 59 mph (95 km/h), and Sapelo Island, Georgia reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). Warner-Robins Air Force Base near Macon recently reported a pressure of 980.9 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of central and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this morning through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts into Friday... Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the tropical storm moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England coast...1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes remain possible today from Georgia into the Carolinas. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#11
11th October 2018, 10:26
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As a fan of the TV series "Supernatual", I find it amusing that as the new series starts the new "baddie" of the show is the archangel "Michael" just as "Tropical Storm Micheal" roars in.
Great script writing :-) |
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#12
11th October 2018, 19:45
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 80.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central and eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts, primarily over water south and east of the center. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) has been reported at Wilmington, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of northeastern South Carolina and will spread northward over central and eastern North Carolina through this evening. Tropical storm force wind gusts are expected across portions of North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon and tonight. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this evening across central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#13
12th October 2018, 07:36
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 75.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An east- northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the coast of the United States during the next few hours and then begin to race east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is expected to continue to strengthen while becoming a post-tropical low during the next few hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), primarily over water to the southeast of the center. The National Ocean Service station on the York River recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) at an elevation of 48 ft (15 m), while the Norfolk Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). Also, a Weatherflow station on the Chesapeake Light Tower recently reported sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) at an elevation of 135 ft (41 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. Gale- to storm-force winds are occurring over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula, and these conditions will continue for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Isolated maximum totals of 7 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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#14
12th October 2018, 18:05
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Final Warning
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 73.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal tropical cyclone warnings and watches are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 73.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the United States today and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean tonight through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today and tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44014 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the North Carolina coast, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, should diminish today. WIND: Gale winds may continue for a few more hours over portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain from New Jersey to Long Island to Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches over Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard through this afternoon. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Elsewhere, flooding and flash flooding may continue where Michael produced heavy rain very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United States can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/210232.png
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David |
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