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#26
18th February 2018, 08:19
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 26.7S 163.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 163.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 28.4S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 30.7S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 33.8S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 37.3S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 42.3S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 163.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALL REMAINING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 172238Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 50 KNOT BARBS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE 60 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI SUPPORTED BY THE 172238Z ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON STEADY STATE CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 172021Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE HEDGED HIGHER THAN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FRON T2.0 TO 3.0 (30 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THIS THRESHOLD AS TC 09P TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 18 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS TC 09P TRANSITIONS, ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ALLOWING INTENSITY TO REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS DESPITE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS. TC 09P WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL OVER NEW ZEALAND AT TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01809_5day.gif
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David |
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#27
18th February 2018, 22:42
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 29.2S 161.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.2S 161.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 32.0S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 35.6S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 39.5S 170.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 42.2S 172.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 29.9S 162.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FURTHER FROM THE PUFF OF REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND SUPPORTED BY AN 181559Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE CONFIRMING A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND SUPPORTED BY A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AS WELL AS AN 181421Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RECENT PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09P IS STILL A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, IT IS STARTING TO DISPLAY SUBTROPICAL FEATURES SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDE. TC 09P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 OVER NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01809_5day.gif
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David |
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#28
19th February 2018, 08:30
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 32.6S 162.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.6S 162.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 36.2S 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 40.5S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 43.9S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 33.5S 163.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 190550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC AND DECAYING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182303Z PARTIAL METOP- A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT PASS, 50 KNOT WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY IN A TIGHT RADIUS AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12 TC 09P WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01809_5day.gif
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David |
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#29
19th February 2018, 19:47
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. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 34.0S 164.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 164.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 38.1S 168.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 41.8S 172.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 35.0S 165.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 191125Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE LLCC WHICH IS STARTING TO BECOME ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS THAT 50 KNOT WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50 TO 60 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01809_5day.gif
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David |
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#30
20th February 2018, 09:12
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Final Warning
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 35.5S 167.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 28 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 35.5S 167.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 39.6S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 43.3S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5S 168.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GITA IS NOW ASSESSED AS FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASYMMETRIC LLCC STRUCTURE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE VWS AND LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID- LATITUDE JET HAS HELPED MAINTAIN THE STRONG CORE WINDS DURING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS IN A 191125Z ASCAT PASS. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, WITH A VERY GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01809_5day.gif
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David |
| Closed Thread |
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