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#1
10th January 2018, 08:35
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Joyce - Australia
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 123.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 123.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.9S 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.8S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.3S 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.8S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 25.4S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 122.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER THEREFORE JUSTIFYING THE ISSUE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 092255Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND ALSO SHOWS WEAK BANDING LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL AND THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ANIMATED RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM SHOWING 25 TO 27 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND ONCE IT TRACKS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN WEST OF AUSTRALIA, IT WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING OVER WATER AROUND TAU 6. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 36. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60 DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OVERLAND TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, VARYING ON THE SPEED OF THE TURN MEANING THAT SOME MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING ENTIRELY OVERLAND WHILE OTHERS TRACK FARTHER WEST OVER WATER. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01805_5day.gif
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#2
10th January 2018, 20:01
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WTXS33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 122.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 122.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.6S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.5S 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.7S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.1S 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.3S 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 28.6S 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 122.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE CAPE LEVEQUE, AUSTRALIA SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT RAIN WITH INCREASING INTENSITY AND THE GENERAL ROTATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON BOTH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND THE HIGHEST REPORTED WIND OBSERVATION IN THE REGION FROM ADELE ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS AND VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 05S HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONE MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA SHIFTING TC 05S TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TC 05S WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WARM OPEN WATER AND WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEADLAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. LAND INTERACTION AS TC 05S TRACKS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUPPORT FOR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFERS IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY AS A RESULT OF THE NEAR-TERM COMPETING STEERING RIDGES. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01805_5day.gif
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#3
11th January 2018, 09:16
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WTXS33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 121.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 121.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.8S 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.0S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.4S 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.2S 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 26.5S 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 121.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102147Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL- DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME PORT INDICATE SLP NEAR 996MB, A 6.5MB DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 36 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 46 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ADJUSTED TO A 1- MINUTE AVERAGE. TC 05S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE SST (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INTERACTION WITH THE FLAT, MOIST LAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT SIGNIFICANTLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 107NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND LANDFALL LOCATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW). https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01805_5day.gif
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#4
11th January 2018, 21:11
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WTXS33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.1S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.5S 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.2S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.3S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 121.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM ABOM PROVIDES A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE APPROXIMATELY 40NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE EXTREMELY WARM, ABOVE 30 CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHILE TC 05S IS TRACKING OVER OPEN WATER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND TC 05S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 18 TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT BUT THERE STILL EXISTS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITH APPROXIMATELY 110NM SPREAD ALONG THE COASTLINE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01805_5day.gif
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David |
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#5
12th January 2018, 14:07
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WTXS33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.1S 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.1S 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.4S 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 120111Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A REGION OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN EDGE. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MANDORA ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS ENE AT 30 KTS AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980MB FURTHER SUPPORTING BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS AND A POINT SOURCE OVER TC 05S. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01805_5day.gif
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David |
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#6
12th January 2018, 19:27
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Final Warning
WTXS33 PGTW 121500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 119.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.8S 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.9S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 26.2S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW INLAND WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS WITH A CENTRAL VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING OF AUSTRALIA. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01805_5day.gif
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David |
| Closed Thread |
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