Iris - South Paciific

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.7S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.6S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.9S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 158.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE NEAR THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK FIX POSITIONS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES T2.0 (30
KNOTS) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH A 272231Z
OSCAT PASS SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27 TO 28 CELSIUS. TC 17P WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, CAUSING THE
CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS CONVERGENCE ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12,
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD. BY
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS CONVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.






https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 158.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 158.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 158.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED FLARING
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED AS IT REMAINED SHEARED
EASTWARD OF A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS NOW BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA, IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM OF 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK
UNDER THE CONVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE. THE
COMBINED EFFECT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET.









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[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.9S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.5S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.6S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.5S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 148.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE
REGENERATION OF TC 17P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 011030). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
(MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTH. A
012036Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER, AND IN THE TRAILING BAND TO THE NORTH.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI IMAGERY AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 012248Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 35 KT
WIND BARBS OVER 50NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF STATION RECORDING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 KTS FOR 4 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE AGREES WITH THE KNES AND
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION DESPITE MODERATE 15-20 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17P
MADE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS)
IN THE PAST 9 HOURS. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF 17P HAD BEEN SUBTROPICAL
ON 27 MAR, IT RE-ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, GROWING
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM CORE, IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGESTS
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT 36 HOURS. IN THE NEAR
TERM, GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE STORM
MOTION, WITH HWRF AND GFS BEING WESTERN OUTLIERS. ECMWF, NAVGEM, AND
AFUM INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER A POSSIBLE LOOP. IN THE
LONG TERM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRIFURCATED, WITH HWRF AND
GFS MOVING TC 17P CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD AUSTRALIA, COAMPS AND
NAVGEM TRACKING TC 17P SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD, AND ECMWF AND
THE UKMET MODELS SHOWING EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AS A RESULT,
MULTIPLE DISSIPATION SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.








https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.3S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.4S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0S 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 148.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WILLIS
ISLAND RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU
36. TC 17P IS EXPERIENCING WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT IS GENERALLY
TRACKING AROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 17P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.









https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.5S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.7S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.3S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.7S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 149.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE SHOWS A
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTED BY A
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS. TC 17P IS UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC IRIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NER. AROUND THIS TIME,
THE STR WILL TRANSIT TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH MOVES IN OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY IN
AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE RESULT
OF THE TROUGH OVER AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW LEVEL
TRACKING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY, IS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EASTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NER AND DISSIPATE UNDER INCREASING VWS. DUE
TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.








https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.6S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.6S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.5S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.2S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 150.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER, PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND 00Z PGTW FIX, SUPPORTED BY A 032010Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A PARTIALLY CLOSED LOW REFLECTIVITY DIMPLE
AT THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 032249Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALING SEVERAL 50 KT WINDS BARBS CLOSE TO THE CENTER, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 46 KT SUSTAINED OBSERVATION FROM 68NM AWAY, IMPLYING
HIGHER WINDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY AGREES WITH THE
PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES CI OF T3.0 (45 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 17P IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND THERE IS CONVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE
NORTHWEST, BOTH OF WHICH ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THESE
UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCES ARE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27C. TC 17P HAS BEGUN
TO INGEST DRY AIR FROM THE WEST, DIMINISHING ITS CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE BUT NOT YET LEADING TO WEAKENING. TC IRIS IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VWS. AT TAU 36, A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FURTHER, AND
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST RECEDES, LEADING TO A
QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD. AS TC 17P DEGRADES, IT WILL BECOME SUBJECT
TO MID-LAYER AND SHALLOW STEERING FLOW FROM THE TROUGH, AND TC 17P
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND TRIFURCATED AFTER TAU 24, WITH
COAMPS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS TRACKING TC 17P OVER OCEAN TO THE EAST,
MANY MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF EXECUTING A LOOP AND MOVING TC
17P EITHER NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, AND THE WESTERN OUTLIER
HWRF PREDICTING A LOOP AND THEN WESTWARD TRACK. IN LIGHT OF THIS,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
EASTWARD OUTLYING TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.








https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.3S 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.5S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 151.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A MOSTLY-EXPOSED LLC WITH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 040435Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF
TC 17P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY INTO A COL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAKENING NER TO THE NORTHEAST. IRIS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO A
QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN THE COL BETWEEN THE NER AND THE STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS PHASE, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RECURVE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR EVENTUALLY DOMINATES AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND STEADILY ERODE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND
TRIFURCATED WITH COAMPS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS TRACKING TC 17P
EASTWARD, SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF RECURVING IT
EQUATORWARD, AND THE HWRF PREDICTING A WESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT
IS LAID SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
THE EASTWARD OUTLYING TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z, AND
050900Z.









https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.7S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.6S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.2S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.1S 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 151.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD BUT PARTLY-EXPOSED LLC WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION NOW WEAKER
AND DISPLACED MORE SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM LOW CLOUD BANDS
FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. THE BROAD LLC AND STARKLY DISPLACED
CONVECTION ARE MATCHED IN THE 040843Z COLORIZED 91 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T3.0), KNES (T2.5),
AND ABRF (T3.0) THAT ARE VALIDATED BY A 041118Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWING A FEW 45-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK, AND
REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF TC 17P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS
MOSTLY OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT
29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY BUT IMMINENTLY
INTO A COL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING NER TO THE
NORTHEAST. IRIS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STATE IN THE COL BETWEEN THE NER AND THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING
THIS PHASE, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RECURVE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
EVENTUALLY DOMINATES AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES IN THE NEAR TERM AND IN
ADDITION, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND FURTHER ERODE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVENTUAL U-TURN EQUATORWARD BUT WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED. NAVGEM IS NOW THE SOLE EASTWARD OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF
THIS, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF A QS STATE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND A BIT WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EASTWARD
PULL OF NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.









https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.4S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.2S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.8S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 152.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC TO THE NORTH OF
STRUGGLING, PERIODICALLY FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE PGTW 00Z FIX
POSITION. A 042325Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OVER 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 34-37
KTS, AS WELL AS A 042127Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KTS. THIS ESTIMATE
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES 00Z FIXES OF CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) T2.5 (35 KTS) BUT BELOW THE ABRF CI OF T3.0 (45 KTS). A
042326Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS REVEALS A PATCH OF 35-39 KT WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST, AND A BROAD SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS SURROUNDING TC
17P WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST SECTOR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS, WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
(27 TO 28 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS RECEDING AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE VWS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION, DROPPING BELOW 35 KTS AFTER 36 HOURS. AS TC 17P IS
SHEARED FROM THE TOP DOWN, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A 700 MB STR TO THE SOUTHWEST,
WHICH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED OVER RECENT RUNS TO AGREE
UPON A GENERAL U-TURN AND THEN NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION, BUT
WITH REMAINING DIFFERENCES IN HOW TIGHTLY TC 17P TURNS NORTHWARD
AND THE TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND FOR THIS REASON TGERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z AND 060300Z.







https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 153.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 153.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.5S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.8S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.2S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.7S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 152.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM NORTH
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17P HAS PERSISTED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 051057Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED
BUT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LLCC REACHING 45 KNOTS, A 050830Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS,
AND A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 17P WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 24 AND 35 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE STEERING PATTERN AROUND TC 17P REMAINS VERY
WEAK. GFS SHOWS TC 17P WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36
WHILE NAVGEM IS INDICATING THAT TC 17P WILL WEAKEN BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION AND
CURRENTLY HAS TC 17P DISSIPATING TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.








https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 153.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 153.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.9S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.2S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.6S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.8S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.1S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 153.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM NORTH
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC OBSERVED IN THE
EIR LOOP. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 051741Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CLOUD BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 051800Z
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW USING THE SHEAR METHOD. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 17P IS CURRENTLY IN ITS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE DUE TO A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO
VWS, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION
BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS TC 17P EXITS ITS QS
STATE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST WESTWARD AND SLOWER
THAN CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z
AND 062100Z.








https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.9S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.1S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.0S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.2S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.3S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 153.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 060026Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE 060000Z PGTW DVORAK FIX OF CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) T3.0
(45 KTS), ABOVE THE KNES FIX OF CI T2.5 (35 KTS), AND SUPPORTED BY A
38 KT OBSERVATION 70NM TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH A 051944Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN
UNCERTAIN STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND A MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 17P IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNDER PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH
VWS AND A FORMING UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED AN IMMEDIATE TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST THAT HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS, AS THE TIMING WHEN TC 17P WILL MAKE THE EXPECTED TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS UNCLEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED AND
WHEN TC 17P WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.








https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.9S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.9S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.8S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION SHEARED 150NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 060540Z
HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 060525Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40
KNOTS. THIS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHICH IS UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
(20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT INDICATING A NORTHWARD TRACK. AS TC 17P TRACKS NORTHWARD IT
WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TC 17P WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 BUT
NAVGEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 72.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.









https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif

[pompeyfan]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 153.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 153.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.3S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 153.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. A 061728Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF 25-30 KNOT GRADIENT
WINDS, AND WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM MARION REEF VERIFY THE 25-30 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WHILE LIHOU REEF AND A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION SUPPORT MUCH WEAKER
WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL WIND
STRUCTURE AS DEPICTED IN RECENT ASCAT. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. AS SHOWN IN THE NAVGEM MODEL, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE IN 3-4 DAYS AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER
WARMER WATER. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING INFLUENCE (SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE WEST). THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12
FEET.









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