Dahlia - Australia

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290422NOV2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 8.9S 104.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 104.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 9.7S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.6S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.9S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.2S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 105.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND BUT SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING EIR AND A 292253Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, THE LATTER OF WHICH SHOWS GOOD CURVATURE IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KNOTS ACCORDING TO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TS 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST, BUT A
TURN TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED BEYOND TAU 24 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS IN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THEREAFTER, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IS
FORECAST TO TURN THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.
TS 01S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY AROUND TAU 48 TO 72. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING SHEAR INDUCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 290430).





http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.5S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.8S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.6S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.9S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, A
301132Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS
DISPLACED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 01S IS FORECAST
TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY
TAU 24 BUT OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01S WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION AS TC DAHLIA APPROACHES THE LEARMONTH AREA. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z.








http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.1S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.4S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.8S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.9S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 811 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF DEEP BUT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OF TC 01S. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
USING A 302240Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS, GIVEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (KNES) TO T3.0 (PGTW), WITH SUPPORT FROM
A 302253Z WINDSAT PASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE
SYSTEM (25 TO 30 KNOTS), SO ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, TC 01S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS
IT TRAVERSES THE COLDER WATERS OFF OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, SO THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.







http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 10.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.0S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 011119Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS)FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (25 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AFTER TAU 72. TC 01S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWARD TURN. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100, 020300Z, 020900, AND 021500Z.









http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.4S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE ASSESSED AND OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 012282Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A RATHER ELONGATED SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC, WHICH CAN BE DENOTED BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING
VISIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AS WELL AS
AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN OVERALL
MODERATELY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY,
BLOCKED FROM ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 01S WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. TC DAHLIA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE
STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S
TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 48, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AROUND TAU
36. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 01S, FULLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST
AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.








http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.9S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A DETERIORATING
STRUCTURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 020603Z AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, IMPEDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO TC 01S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS GENEROUSLY BASED ON
RECENT CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WITH A
56 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 020615Z DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, AND A
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES DECLINE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF 15 DEGREES SOUTH. THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WELL SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO FEED IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALSO EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA WILL BEGIN
EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND STEERING TC 01S TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM GIVING RISE
TO ANOTHER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TC 01S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AND
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THROUGH TAU 48. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48,
THE SOUTHWARD TRACK WILL BRING TC 01S INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. COOLER SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
SET IN MOTION A WEAKENING TREND, WHICH WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A
PASSING TROUGH INDUCING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STEERING
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE PASSING TROUGH ERODES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST. TC 01S SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500, 022100Z,
030300Z, AND 030900Z.







http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 11.2S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.8S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 112.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION NEARLY
DIED OUT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 021224Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE
ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT PATCH OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, IMPEDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO TC 01S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35
KNOTS), AND A 43 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 021223Z. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, AND A
DEGRADING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES DECLINE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF 15 DEGREES SOUTH.
COINCIDING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE CIMSS TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WELL SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO FEED IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TC 01S HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS AS A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND
STEER TC 01S TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THIS TRACK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, THE SOUTHWARD TRACK
WILL BRING TC 01S INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, ONLY TO BE EXACERBATED BY A PASSING TROUGH INDUCING HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE PASSING TROUGH ERODES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST. TC 01S
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48,
BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING
INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z.







http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTLI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A 022216Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS LIMITED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END
OF MUTLI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5
TO T2.5 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA
OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 01S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. TC DAHLIA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE WITH COOLER SSTS, UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH, AND AN EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR MASS WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 48. ALSO
AFTER TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
NORTH AND CAUSING TC 01S TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM CAUSES THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
SPREAD. DESPITE THE SPREAD AFTER TAU 36 THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z, AND 040300Z.







http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.9S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PULSATING CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES
AND THE EXPOSED LLCC IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE HIGHLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND A 030149Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS DESPITE, ALSO
NOTING AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5
(25 TO 35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG EASTERLIES FROM
A NEARBY RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST CREATING A MODERATE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. DIFFLUENCE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS ROBUST
AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TOUGH IS PROVIDING A WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AROUND
28 CELSIUS, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES DECLINE RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 15
DEGREES. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 01S WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
TACT WITH BOUTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
MITIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND THE SYSTEM
WILL PERSIST AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSISTENCY OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. BEYOND TAU 36 IT IS UNCLEAR
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF TC 01S WILL TRACK. AS A WEAK DEPRESSION, THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON STEERING AND MOST LIKELY
WILL TRACK BACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW, LEAVING
THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION SEVERAL DAYS OUT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.









http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967

[pompeyfan]

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 111.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE, WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SUPPORT THE
ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5, REFLECTING CIMSS SATCON AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES. A 031424Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER, BUT INDICATED 25
KNOTS NEARBY. TC 01S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DUE TO DECLINING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DAHLIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
REMNANT CIRC COULD EVENTUALLY TRACK BACK INTO MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 12 FEET.








http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967